Cogito Patris

Random Thoughts for Random People

Part 1 of 31 – 2008 SuperBowl Pick

6 months without football.  SIX Months without football.  Six MONTHS without football?

If you are anything like me you are not sure what you are going to do on Sundays for the next six months.  I usually end up pulling the Washington Redskins Superbowl DVDs off the shelf to watch (though I am bummed that it wasn’t the original broadcasts of the Superbowls, complete with commercials).  I also pull the DVDs for the James Madison University National Championship of 2004 for a dose of football.  If I get really desperate, I will watch arena league or European league American Style football.

But, I decided that even though we are six months from any kind of meaningful NFL football, that wouldn’t keep me from making some predictions.

After reading the TMQ Annual Bad Predictions wrap-up last week, I came to the realization that I could choose the next Superbowl winner with a high degree of accuracy, I just have to change my mind 30 times.  This isn’t that far off the norm for “expert” NFL analysts, I will just be a little more systematic about it (hey, I almost have to be right once).

You may notice that this is a 31 part series even though there are 32 teams in the NFL.  I will give you one guess who this Redskins fan can not bring himself to choose.

Now for my pick (Drum-roll Please):

The Buffalo Bills

You may be wondering why I chose to start with the Bills.  Is it because I think they are coming off a great year?…No, that can’t be it, they were 7 – 9.  Great Coaching?  Dick Jauron is an unimpressive 43-58 in his NFL career.  Maybe it is because I have been following them for years and I think this is their break-out year?  … No, I couldn’t even tell you who their starting QB is without looking them up (which I will in a moment). 

I will tell you why I chose them…they were at the topon’s “Teams” page.

They are in the AFC East with the New Jersey Jets and the Boston Patriots.  That certainly doesn’t help their cause much. 

J.P. Losman (QB – see, I told you I would look it up) did not put up glaring numbers last season.  An 84.9 QB rating isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but it also isn’t something to gloat about.  However, (judging by the stats) he took almost every snap last season.  That kind of consistency is missing in a lot of clubhouses (We are not naming names yet). 

Willis McGahee put up strong numbers.  He is still young enough to carry the load and has enough experience to be a team leader (at least from an outsider’s perspective).  The WR core seems to depend heavily on Lee Evans (whom I have to admit I havn’t heard of).  But judging from his stats, the team could do worse.

Unfortunately the most important aspect of any offence does not lend itself to statistical analysis.  The offensive line play can not be wrapped up in a number.  Pancakes and sacks are indicators of individual effort, but not necessarily how well the group did.    Average Rushing Yards can be important, and 3.7 yards/rush isn’t exactly going to blow the doors off the competition.

That being said, it seems that every year there are teams that come from mediocrity to the big show (or close at least).  This team has every chance of doing so this coming season.

So there you have it, my superbowl pick: The Buffalo Bills (Until I change my mind at least).


February 16, 2007 - Posted by | Football, JMU, Redskins, Sports, SuperBowl

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