Cogito Patris

Random Thoughts for Random People

Football Hiatus and 2009 Superbowl Predictions

OK, I may be looking forward to football a little.  Last year I predicted the winner of the Superbowl before the season even started.  This season I am going to try to do so again.  But this time, I am going to do it much more quickly.  In fact, it is all in this one post.  Not only that, but I am getting bolder this year and putting them in order by probability of winning the Superbowl.  And, just to press my luck, I am going to estimate the final regular season record for each team.

I recommend that you not do the math, I’m pretty sure that the wins and losses don’t add up.

0) Washington Redskins (16-0) – I don’t need a reason.  But, since you asked:  The great Joe Gibbs retired.  If this coming season goes well then nobody will talk about how he did in his second stint.  I can hear the pundits now “The game may have passed him by, but he can still evaluate and develop talent like nobody else.”  This season is for Joe.
1) Detroit Lions (14-2) – Think I’m crazy? Yeah, me too.  But every year there is a sleeper that comes out of nowhere to surprise everyone.  I also think that the AFC Domination is coming to an end, which is why I picked the least likely NFC team as my #2.
2) San Diego Chargers (14-2) – They have trouble in the post season, but they are a talented group.  They have also had the misfortune to be good when the Colts and Patriots are great.  Personally, I think they are due.
3) Minnesota Vikings (13-3) – The return of the Purple People Eaters…but this time, he is running the ball.
4) Indianapolis Colts (13-3) – Sibling rivalry is a big thing.  That that Manning the Younger has a title just like his big brother, Manning the elder needs another one.
5) New England Patriots (11-5) – Surprised at how far down I sent this team after an undefeated season*?  Me too. This is a combination of a “downer” after losing the Superbowl after an Undefeated Season* and the fact that I think the AFC domination is coming to an end.
6) Washington Redskins (11-5) – I know I already put them down as my #0.  But that was my heart speaking.  This is where my head thinks they actually are.
7) St. Louis Rams (10-6) – Chris Long is a Beast and a Leader.  The defense will do well under his guidance.
8 ) New York Jets (10-6) – Good team, lots of talent, especially on the offensive line, good coach.  They showed flashes last year.  And now, they have cheerleaders (sorta)!
9) Cleveland Browns (10-6) – They signed a Bridgewater College, my father’s alma mater, graduate to the team as an undrafted rookie.
10) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) – The NFC East is tough.  As a result, the teams in the division end up losing more games because they have to play each other twice a year.  That is one of the reasons that I have the NFC East teams so low on my list.  Each team is essentially stuck at going 3-3 in the division.  The Eagles are in a time of transition, so they probably should not be this high on the list.  But, it is amazing what people can do when they think their job is on the line.
11) San Francisco 49ers (9-7) – They are still playing catch-up.  But they are on their way.
12) Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – They are due, right?
13) Houston Texans (9-7) – Actually, these are the guys that are due.
14) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8 ) – If Rathl-, Rothlis-, Rorog- the guy who plays QB does well, this team could hit a new high…if not, new lows may be in order.  Either way, they should be entertaining to watch.
15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8 ) – I just can not get over the pirate ship at their stadium…that is just awesome.
16) Carolina Panthers (8-8 ) – My new home town team.
17) New Orleans Saints (8-8 ) – Marti Gras! 
18 ) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) – Have you heard of snow blindness?  Well, their jerseys give me red blindness.
19) Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9) – What kind of football team wears Teal?
20) Tennessee Titans (7-9) – Something about Nashville.  I don’t have a joke yet, but I know it is there.
21) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) – There is no such thing as a ‘Seahawk’.
22) Denver Broncos (6-10) – Home of ‘The Ultimate Leader’ who hasn’t made the playoffs in a loooooong time.
23) Chicago Bears (6-10) – They cut Thomas Jones.
24) Buffalo Bills (6-10) – I can’t find anyplace good to have Buffalo Wings in Charlotte.
25) New York Giants (6-10) – The Giants played above themselves last year.  Look for a return to mediocrity this year and for more questions concerning Manning the Younger.  But they know how to win and they know how to win close games.  For that, optimism will surround the team…until their first loss.
25.5) Washington Redskins (5-11) – I know I already put them down as my #0 and #6.  But that was my heart and head speaking.  This is where my pessimism thinks they actually are.
26) Oakland Raiders (5-11) – There is no tomorrow for this team.  Unfortunately, there is no today either.  My brother and I have been calling the Redskins and Raiders “Sister Teams” for the past few years.  Both have enthusiastic fans (to put it mildly).  Both owners will pay anything to win.  Both teams have storied histories but haven’t done much recently.  Those similarities are why I think they will win the Superbowl.
27) Baltimore Ravens (5-11) – Ray Lewis is old. 
28 ) Green Bay Packers (4-12) – They played way above themselves last year.
29)Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) – Who?
30) Atlanta Falcons (2-14) – I Love Dogs.
31) Miami Dolphins (0-16) – Pundits the world round will pick Miami to go to the Superbowl.  Why?  Because it is warm there.  These pundits want to go to the warm Miami beach and write about a team on the verge.  Personally, I think they are more likely to lose every game.
32) Dallas Cowboys (0-16) – I am including them this year, what else do you want from me?

* Excluding the Superbowl

Now, for giggles and grins, I have decided to see what would happen if I applied the Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate to the entire season.
This is from Tuesday Morning Quarterback from 2/15/2008): Best Record Wins; If Records Equal, Home Team Wins.

Here is what I came up with:

1) Baltimore (16/0)
2) New Orleans (16/0)
3) Buffalo (15/1)
4) Green Bay (15/1)
5) Philadelphia (15/1)
6) San Diego (15/1)
7) Tennessee (14/2)
8 ) NY Giants (13/3)
9) New England (12/4)
10) San Francisco (12/4)
11) Atlanta (11/5)
12) Jacksonville (11/5)
13) Carolina (9/7)
14) Indianapolis (9/7)
15) Miami (9/7)
16) Washington (9/7)
17) Cleveland (7/9)
18 ) Oakland (7/9)
19) Chicago (6/10)
20) Dallas (6/10)
21) NY Jets (6/10)
22) Minnesota (5/11)
23) Seattle (5/11)
24) Kansas City (4/12)
25) Pittsburgh (3/13)
26) Houston (2/14)
27) St. Louis (2/14)
28 ) Denver (1/15)
29) Detroit (1/15)
30) Arizona (0/16)
31) Cincinnati (0/16)
32) Tampa Bay (0/16)

It will be interesting to see if the simple algorithm is closer to reality than I am.

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May 1, 2008 - Posted by | Football, Sports, SuperBowl

5 Comments »

  1. Dallas will without question win the superbowl. The Spurs will win the NBA championship. I do not know who will win the World Series – who cares the game sucks without the “roids.” The Red Wings will repeat.

    Comment by the patriot | July 1, 2008 | Reply

  2. Them’s Fightin’ Words buddy. 🙂

    Comment by m2morgan64 | July 2, 2008 | Reply

  3. haha. i agree with all skins predictions. oh and the cowboys suck!

    Comment by clarkca | July 11, 2008 | Reply

  4. not sure how and if you get updates on your blogs, but this is why i don’t predict the outcomes of the season…ouch, the giants are good and we are definitely going to lose to them this weekend.

    Comment by cory | November 26, 2008 | Reply

  5. But I predicted that everyone would win the superbowl. So I am still right. 😉

    Comment by m2morgan64 | November 26, 2008 | Reply


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